Horizon: Geopolitical Supply Shock
11 April 2026 — A fragile pause and the macro signals from one of the world’s biggest energy crises, with systemic insights and recommended reads
Horizon is a strategic briefing that tracks the political, economic, and business signals reshaping the international system, and how they impact strategy, leadership, and wealth, every Saturday morning (CET).
In this edition: Key signals; systemic insights on their impact; what I’m reading; one last thing.
Key Signals
A Fragile Pause
One of the biggest focus areas for the international political economy right now is the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy (more on that below). The single most consequential geopolitical event of the week was the last-hour agreement towards a temporary pause in hostilities.
US President Donald Trump had demanded that Iran open the Strait by Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, threatening to decimate bridges and power plants in Iran if it didn’t.
Iran agreed to the temporary ceasefire within hours of that deadline and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the two weeks.
Why this matters: The now six-week-old US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began in late February, has triggered what the International Energy Agency has characterised as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
The conflict has already exposed how quickly a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz can transmit geopolitical risk into global energy, shipping, inflation, and asset prices more broadly.
There have been immediate consequences for oil, LNG, shipping, inflation, and asset prices, which remain the case. The latest ceasefire developments have only temporarily moved the situation from one of acute panic to, at best, unstable containment.
In addition to oil, this conflict has also significantly impacted global LNG and regional gas supply chains. European gas storage has already been reported as low for the season, with some estimates and scenarios pointing to end-of-winter levels around 30% or slightly below, depending on weather and supply conditions. The impact of the conflict complicates the task of creating a buffer for next winter.
Oil and gas prices are likely to remain elevated above pre-war levels as governments around the world are expected to hoard and restock. This is likely to remain the case in the coming months, even if talks scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad prove encouraging. A renewed conflict will only increase supply uncertainty and price volatility in the weeks ahead.
Key details: