The Horizon: Geopolitical Supply Shock
Signals & Insights | 11th April 2026 — A fragile pause and the macro signals from one of the world’s biggest energy crises, with systemic insights and recommended reads
The Horizon is a strategic briefing that tracks the political, economic, and business signals reshaping the international system, and how they impact strategy, leadership, and wealth, every Saturday morning (CET).
In this edition: Key signals; systemic insights on their impact; what I’m reading; one last thing.
Key Signals
A Fragile Pause
One of the biggest focus areas for the international political economy right now is the ongoing US-Israel-Iran conflict in the Middle East and its impact on the global economy (more on that below). The single most consequential geopolitical event of the week was the last-hour agreement towards a temporary pause in hostilities.
US President Donald Trump had demanded that Iran open the Strait by Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET, threatening to decimate bridges and power plants in Iran if it didn’t.
Iran agreed to the temporary ceasefire within hours of that deadline and to allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz during the two weeks.
Why this matters: The now six-week-old US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began in late February, has triggered what the International Energy Agency has characterised as the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”.
The conflict has already exposed how quickly a chokepoint like the Strait of Hormuz can transmit geopolitical risk into global energy, shipping, inflation, and asset prices more broadly.
There have been immediate consequences for oil, LNG, shipping, inflation, and asset prices, which remain the case. The latest ceasefire developments have only temporarily moved the situation from one of acute panic to, at best, unstable containment.
In addition to oil, this conflict has also significantly impacted global LNG and regional gas supply chains. European gas storage has already been reported as low for the season, with some estimates and scenarios pointing to end-of-winter levels around 30% or slightly below, depending on weather and supply conditions. The impact of the conflict complicates the task of creating a buffer for next winter.
Oil and gas prices are likely to remain elevated above pre-war levels as governments around the world are expected to hoard and restock. This is likely to remain the case in the coming months, even if talks scheduled for this weekend in Islamabad prove encouraging. A renewed conflict will only increase supply uncertainty and price volatility in the weeks ahead.
Key details: The two-week ceasefire, mediated by Pakistan, is an agreement by the US, its allies, and Iran to “an immediate ceasefire everywhere”, according to Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif.
In addition to the US 15-point plan, Iran’s 10-point proposal will be on the table in negotiations.
Iran agreed to allow safe passage through the strait during the ceasefire through “coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration to technical limitations”.
Six weeks into the conflict, a huge oil supply gap has opened up in the world market.
It is estimated that approximately 11 million barrels per day of crude production has been taken offline, export volumes from the Middle East Gulf have fallen from 15 million to an effective 7 million barrels per day, and refinery run cuts add a further 3 million barrels per day, according to a note earlier this week by industry data and analytics provider Kpler.
Iran said its armed forces will regulate passage through the Strait of Hormuz, granting the country “unique economic and geopolitical standing”, according to reports.
However, what matters most is whether tankers, insurers, refiners, and buyers believe this (unfree) route is genuinely safe and if they can get through to deliver to the world’s economies.
Up to now, Tehran has reportedly charged some shipping companies a $2 million fee to guarantee safe passage; effectively, an extra tax that tankers didn’t pay before the crisis started.
Oman has reportedly rejected an Iranian proposal to share tolling of the Strait.
As the week progressed, shipping data suggested oil tanker traffic through the Strait had not yet picked up significantly.
Shipping analysts were reported as saying that there will be no “mass exodus” of the estimated 2,000 ships understood to be trapped in the region.
Ahead of talks this weekend, Iran has already publicly accused Israel of breaking the ceasefire with continued attacks in Lebanon.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped from more than $111 to a low of $91 a barrel after news of the ceasefire broke, a sharp drop, but still well above the just under $73 a barrel it settled at on 27 February, before the war began. As the week progressed, prices began to move back towards the $100 mark.
Stock markets in the US, Europe, and Asia responded positively after the ceasefire news broke, before paring back some gains, and eventually finished the week in positive territory.
Oil Price.com IEA Statement of Iranian Foreign Minister on X Statement of Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif on X Statement from The White House on X Statement of Iran’s President on X CNBC CNN Kpler WEF Reuters Guardian BBC News First Post Market Watch