The Horizon: Strategic Realignment
Signals: week of 7 February 2026: India-US trade announcement, new critical minerals trading bloc, push for made in Europe strategy, and EU citizens want stronger union.
Top Signal: India-US Trade Announcement
After India signed what was described as the “mother of all deals” with the EU last week, a trade framework was announced this week between India and the US. The agreement is expected to cut U.S. tariffs on Made in India goods from 50% to 18%, reportedly in exchange for India halting the purchase of Russian oil and committing to $500 billion in U.S. energy, tech, and agriculture imports in the coming years. India is expected to also ease tariff and non-tariff barriers on American goods, which the US President signalled on social media this week would be “zero”.
India is a major importer of Russian oil, reported to be roughly 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil each day. President Trump said this week that India has agreed to replace the Russian crude imports with US and potentially Venezuelan oil, which is of a similar quality to Russian oil. However, details of this week’s agreement remain sketchy. Significantly, the Indian Prime Minister Modi did not mention the oil agreement in his communication. CNN NYT WSJ White House on X PM Modi on X
Key Signals
New Critical Minerals Trading Bloc
This week, the Trump administration signalled its intention to create a new critical minerals trading bloc together with its allies and partners at a meeting in Washington, which included officials from several European, Asian, and African nations, among others. Critical minerals are key components in many high-tech products, including electric vehicles and military hardware. This initiative could reduce reliance on China or even reshape global supply chains for these vital materials.