The Horizon: Structural Stress
Signals: week of 21 November 2025 - Slowest G20 expansion since 2009, Europe’s strategic divisions over Ukraine, EU growth exceeds expectations, and Japan’s economy contracts.
Top Signal: IMF Warns of the Slowest G20 Expansion Since 2009
This week, the International Monetary Fund projected that G20 economies will grow by just 3.2% in 2025, and this growth is expected to slow even further to 3.0% in 2026. Medium-term growth is projected at 2.9% which would be the weakest medium-term trajectory since the global financial crisis. In its report to the G20, it points to rising protectionism, public-debt burdens, demographic challenges, and political uncertainty as core drags on productivity and trade. It said that international cooperation has an important role to play in restoring confidence, predictability, and growth prospects.
G20 leaders are due to meet in South Africa this weekend. However, it has been reported that political leaders from several member countries, such as the US, China, and Mexico, are not planning to attend the gathering. IMF Reuters
Key Signals
Europe’s Strategic Divisions Over Ukraine
At the EU foreign ministers’ meeting this week, there was resistance to a US-backed plan to end the war in Ukraine, reportedly being drafted behind closed doors with Russia. First reported in US media, it apparently includes terms that would be highly disadvantageous for Ukraine. Meanwhile, member state Hungary has called for halting EU funding to Kyiv after corruption reports. Euronews Reuters
EU Growth Exceeds Expectations, But Headwinds Remain
Staying with Europe, the European Commission announced this week that economic growth exceeded expectations in the first nine months of 2025, with real GDP growth outperforming the projected annual expansion announced in the spring, as exporters looked to get ahead of tariffs and significant investments were made in equipment and intangible assets. This outcome was also supported by a resilient labour market, decreasing inflation, and favourable financing conditions.