In this edition: Signals; systemic insights; what I’m reading; one last thing.
Key Signals
Iran War and the Strait (Jacket) of Hormuz
This week, the escalation of the war in Iran continued the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil and gas typically flows.
With few tankers able to get through, these Iranian-imposed restrictions on a key point in the global energy market are acting like a straitjacket on global trade.
The conflict, now in its fifth week, is increasingly disrupting global energy supplies, sending oil prices soaring above $100 per barrel (hitting $119 a barrel (Brent) at one point this week), and triggering emergency responses from governments and central banks worldwide.
Why it matters: The crisis, in real time, continues to expose the fragility of globalised energy markets and forces a reckoning with the geopolitical risks embedded in supply chains.
The Strait of Hormuz blockade is both an energy shock and a stress test for the entire international economy.
Businesses, investors, and policymakers must now confront the reality that geopolitical chokepoints can overnight disrupt trade, inflation, and economic growth, forcing a rethink of energy security and supply chain resilience strategies.
Even if the war ended today, perceived risks to energy supplies from this critical region will likely remain embedded in higher prices.
Key details