Donald Trump Wins His Second Term
The new administration is likely to take the country in a radically different direction
Donald Trump Wins Second Term
Former President Donald Trump is now the new President-Elect of the United States of America. He will retake office in January next year following a convincing win over his Democratic rival, the current Vice President, Kamala Harris. Trump was successful in flipping key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia and has secured more than the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House. He also won the popular vote, an outcome he failed to do in 2016 and the first time a Republican candidate has done so in 20 years.
It was a very successful election for the Republicans who recaptured the Senate and look set to do the same in the House of Representatives. This means that American voters have shifted to the right and given the Republicans a strong mandate to pass their preferred legislation on a wide range of issues such as the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, and make political appointments to high office over at least the next two years until the mid-terms are scheduled to take place in 2026.
Biden remains the only Democrat candidate to have succeeded in beating 78-year-old Trump in a presidential election, however, he dropped out of the race this summer over concerns about his age. A more youthful Harris had initial momentum in the race before Trump closed the gap in the final weeks. Had she won she would have been the first female US president and only the second president of colour. However, the late switch of the Democrat candidate ultimately proved unsuccessful and Trump’s victory is one of the most remarkable political comebacks in American history. He is set to become only the second US President since Grover Cleveland to serve two non-consecutive terms and the oldest person to be elected President of the United States. This suggests that age was less of an issue in the swing states than others such as the cost of living and immigration.
Trump’s victory means that the Biden presidency will follow a similar legacy as the Obama presidency, it will now have to prepare to hand over power to a new Trump administration. President Biden spoke with the President-Elect this week and assured him that his team would ensure a peaceful and orderly transition.
If the Democrats are to reclaim the presidency from the Republicans in 2028, they will have to go back to the drawing board and find a new formula to win. Trump is not eligible to serve a third term, so this should be his last administration. A new Republican candidate will be expected in four years.
The new Trump administration is likely to take the country in a radically different direction with a return to an emphasis on “America First” and a departure from the more internationalist approach of the Biden years, whose administration had strongly supported the defense of Ukraine and the expansion of the NATO alliance. It should be expected that the new administration will be less interested in European security or give Ukraine the same level of support as the Biden administration.
In his previous term, Trump portrayed European NATO allies as freeloaders for not spending enough on defense and depending too much on the US for their security. His former national security adviser, John Bolton, was previously reported recalling a “frightening” moment when Trump very nearly removed the US from NATO at the alliance’s 2018 summit in Brussels. He had also warned that if Trump was re-elected “the US will be out of NATO.”
However, the GOP 2024 MAGA Platform has promised to “strengthen Alliances by ensuring that our Allies must meet their obligations to invest in our Common Defense and by restoring Peace to Europe.” It remains to be seen whether increased military spending by European allies will be enough to keep the next Trump administration engaged with the alliance and whether restoring peace to Europe means finding a just peace in Ukraine. However, it is a fair assessment that Trump’s surprise win this week is a second wake-up call for Europe to take responsibility for their collective security.
For the moment, however, key European leaders were quick to congratulate Trump on Wednesday morning, once it became clear that his path back to the White House looked increasingly certain. EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen warmly congratulated the new President-Elect.
French President, Emmanuel Macron emphasized a readiness to work together.
German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz emphasized the long time both nations have successfully worked together.
While Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni emphasized the strategic bond between Italy and the US.
“On behalf of myself and the Italian Government, my most sincere congratulations to the President-elect of the United States, Donald Trump. Italy and the United States are “sister” nations, linked by an unshakable alliance, common values, and a historic friendship. It is a strategic bond, which I am sure we will now strengthen even further. Good work Mr. President.”
Trump's return is also likely to radically change economic policy, having promised to cut taxes, reduce regulations, and impose new tariffs on most foreign manufactured goods which could be the highest since the 1930s. That could have global ripple effects for growth and inflation in the global economy. It is possible, depending on how far Trump chooses to go, that his economic policies could cause a global trade war. Moreover, Trump’s economic policies could add to America’s already high level of indebtedness. One study, I recently wrote about, found that Trump’s proposed policies would significantly widen the US national debt. With news of Trump’s win coming through on Wednesday, the financial markets seem to have gotten in on the “Trump Trade”. US Treasury bonds tumbled, however, US stocks surged and the dollar posted its biggest gain against other major currencies since at least 2020.
It was largely expected that this election would be very tight and thus open to be contested if it came down to a small number of votes. However, that did not happen as Trump’s victory was clear and decisive. While President Biden has assured a peaceful and orderly transfer of power within America, European allies should also prepare themselves for what is likely to be a return to four more years of frosty transatlantic relations centered on putting America first, and thus Europe second.